Chris Loeliger
Windermere Real Estate/S.C.A., Inc
Chris Loeliger | Direct: 425-785-9217 | Email: cloeliger@windermere.com
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January 2011 Statistic Details
Posted on February 8, 2011
I gave a quick overview of the January Statistics from the NWMLS on Monday. I always like to dig a little deeper around my area. So, starting from a very high level and moving to smaller areas here's what January had for us.
| Area Wide (Entire NWMLS with a few small exceptions) | ||||
| Jan-10 | Jan-11 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | 23358 | 21845 | -1513 | -6.5% |
| Active listings | 34216 | 32593 | -1623 | -4.7% |
| Median Price | $291,550.00 | $254,900.00 | $36,650.00 | -12.6% |
| Average price | $419,262.00 | $369,657.00 | $49,605.00 | -11.8% |
| Pending Listings | 5579 | 5393 | -186 | -3.3% |
| Median Price | $259,900.00 | $235,000.00 | $24,900.00 | -9.6% |
| Average price | $321,972.00 | $301,433.00 | $20,539.00 | -6.4% |
| Closed listings | 3142 | 3207 | 65 | 2.1% |
| Median Price | $259,903.00 | $243,500.00 | $16,403.00 | -6.3% |
| Average price | $316,140.00 | $305,428.00 | $10,712.00 | -3.4% |
Now, some of you may have noticed that the median prices listed here don't match what I reported on Monday. Well, it's true. These numbers reflect only single family residences and condominiums. Whereas, the numbers I reported on Monday included all property types which include land, farm and ranch, and others. These numbers are the ones I like to report as the reflect the majority of the homes we really live in day to day.
There are a few numbers that stand out to me. The number of active agents is down 6.5%. That feels like a lot. But, we're still way over the number of agents we had last time this was a healthy market. For instance, in May of 2003 there were 16,611 agents in the NWMLS. We still have 5000 more agents than that right now. Being an agent is a tough business to make a living in right now and I think we'll continue to see agents leave the business for some time to come.
I think the other thing that really stands out to me is the incredible volatility of the numbers. There aren't two months in a row of the prices, activity or anything moving in the same direction. Take my entry from February 1. In that entry I was making the point national media was reporting down numbers from November when more recent numbers from December were up. Well, here we are again one month later and the numbers are down again. No consistency at all in the market. (I really need to talk about rolling averages!)
Narrowing down a little, here's the same table for King county.
| King County | ||||
| Jan-10 | Jan-11 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | 11919 | 11419 | -500 | -4.2% |
| Active listings | 10679 | 10294 | -385 | -3.6% |
| Median Price | $365,000.00 | $307,060.00 | $57,940.00 | -15.9% |
| Average price | $571,928.00 | $494,301.00 | $77,627.00 | -13.6% |
| Pending Listings | 2211 | 2101 | -110 | -5.0% |
| Median Price | $334,900.00 | $299,950.00 | $34,950.00 | -10.4% |
| Average price | $416,871.00 | $396,483.00 | $20,388.00 | -4.9% |
| Closed listings | 1222 | 1259 | 37 | 3.0% |
| Median Price | $350,000.00 | $333,500.00 | $16,500.00 | -4.7% |
| Average price | $420,535.00 | $411,353.00 | $9,182.00 | -2.2% |
The number of agents here in King county represents more than half of all the agents in the 22 counties or so that the NWMLS serves. Additionally, the number of agents here is down only 4.2%. Again, my point remains that we need to see more move out of the industry. Sorry, that sounds cruel and it isn't meant to be but I think it is true that we need fewer agents.
How about the number of closed listings? Up 3% compared to last year! Nice. We may see that percentage come down in the next few months as the effect of the increased closings last year due to the tax credit really took hold in March and April.
Zooming in even further here are the tables for the Sammamish and Redmond areas respectively.
| Area 540 (East of Lake Sammamish) | ||||
| Jan-10 | Jan-11 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | - | - | ||
| Active listings | 723 | 735 | 12 | 1.7% |
| Median Price | $478,500.00 | $439,950.00 | $38,550.00 | -8.1% |
| Average price | $610,838.00 | $587,797.00 | $23,041.00 | -3.8% |
| Pending Listings | 149 | 151 | 2 | 1.3% |
| Median Price | $459,900.00 | $425,000.00 | $34,900.00 | -7.6% |
| Average price | $467,630.00 | $479,126.00 | $11,496.00 | 2.5% |
| Closed listings | 89 | 101 | 12 | 13.5% |
| Median Price | $445,000.00 | $449,000.00 | $4,000.00 | 0.9% |
| Average price | $502,661.00 | $477,435.00 | $25,226.00 | -5.0% |
| Area 550 (Redmond/Carnation) | ||||
| Jan-10 | Jan-11 | Change | Change % | |
| Number of agents | - | - | ||
| Active listings | 371 | 326 | -45 | -12.1% |
| Median Price | $489,000.00 | $499,975.00 | $10,975.00 | 2.2% |
| Average price | $607,096.00 | $629,562.00 | $22,466.00 | 3.7% |
| Pending Listings | 81 | 69 | -12 | -14.8% |
| Median Price | $429,000.00 | $355,478.00 | $73,522.00 | -17.1% |
| Average price | $479,599.00 | $378,379.00 | $101,220.00 | -21.1% |
| Closed listings | 49 | 37 | -12 | -24.5% |
| Median Price | $485,000.00 | $383,000.00 | $102,000.00 | -21.0% |
| Average price | $481,539.00 | $426,539.00 | $55,000.00 | -11.4% |
Redmond and Sammamish are right next door to each other. They have their differences but both appeal to a pretty similar demographic. In Sammamish pending listings are up 1.3% and closed listings are up 13.5%. Right down the street in Redmond pending listings are down 14.8% and closed listings are down 24.5%. How can two similar places have such radically different results? I think this illustrates the market volatility I mentioned earlier.
If you are looking at these numbers and wondering how to make sense of them, what your current house is worth on the open market or what the house you want to buy is worth... call me (or your favorite agent, but I'd rather you call me!). I can't tell you with 100% certainty either, but I assure you that I can give you the information you need to know if you are getting a good deal or not.
Chris Loeliger
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